Sample Business Paper on Financial Modelling


In the finance world, a three-statement model is used to links income statement, cash flow and
balance sheet statements into one connected but dynamic financial model.  These models form
the foundation of building more advanced financial models like discounted cash flow, merger
models among other financial models. In so doing, it becomes easy to visualize performance and
be able to conduct projections. The reason is because, data and values are put on a single excel
worksheet. When accurate data is available and assumptions holds constant, this offers a good
view of the overall company performance and therefore give ability to guarantee the forecasted
values. In this case, we will be analyzing Amazon three statement model approach as provided in
the site.
CFI highly recommends using single worksheet layout for the following reasons:
 Ease of navigation
 Eliminates the risk of mis-linking formulas
 Improves organization by use of cell grouping
 More room for consolidation of multi-business entities is created


The steps required to model a three-statement structure includes the following;
 Historical data capture-This is data picked form previous financial period
 Assumption identification- This will involve metrics like assumed revenue growth,
capital expenditure among others. These will act as the drivers of the forecast in the
Amazon three model process.
 Projection the income – This is done by forecasting revenue and building gross profits
using the supporting schedules.
 Asset Forecasting- This step involves capital assets, by taking previous financial period
closing balance plus capital expenditure and less depreciation.
 Financial activity forecasting- This done through building debt schedule to enable
determination of interest expense on the income statement. It is calculated as a result of
previous period’s closing balance plus change in principle.
 Balance sheet forecasting- This is calculated by involving factors such as working capital
and inventory turns.
 Finish the cash flow statement- This step involves linking that have been computed


From the information availed in the report, it is clear that Amazon intends to model a three
statement. However, the assumption that are being made in this scenario may be difficult to hold.
This is due to the fact that dynamism is a common factor in any business environment. It is
worth noting that projection relies on the ability to get the initial figures right and the subsequent

understanding of the environment. This will enable creation of a three-statement model that will
stand the test of times.
The fact that Amazons three statement Model assumes that debt behaviors will remain
unchanged is a serious mistake. Government policies change due to market changes, debtors
become unable to pay their debt obligation and other debt factors. The fact that the model fails to
consider that makes the model to become unpractical. Debts also should be categorized
according to their risk in a normal financial statement. However, this has been ignored the
current scenario. This means that it will not be possible to achieve required status in terms of
debt management and prediction.
Following this model patterns, it is clear that historical data is key to creating of the base point
form where the projection are initiated. Historical data is important to any organization and its
key to determining the future of any organization financial patterns. However, according to
(Buljubasic, Elvisa and Sanel, n.a), in business there are other factors that should be introduced
as coefficient to offset various forces that will definitely affect revenue patterns In real sense,
historical data is good while we can be able to accurately determine future environmental
conditions and factor hem in our forecasting process, otherwise, it will be difficult to determine
the true position of Amazon Inc.
Consequently, the company is said to rely on Restricted Stock units to pay its employees. This
forms a basis that can hurt the future shareholders or can benefit the company. It goes without
saying that share holders are the owners of any business and this ownership is depicted by
owning shares in the entity as a way of investing. This method of paying employees opens the
door for all employees to be shareholders either in the long term or short term basis.

As such, there can be increase capital injection that can boost the business performance which is
a positive outcome. On the other hand, this seems like forced shareholding as employees are
normally paid through their salary in monetary values or directly. This may increase the number
of shareholders to limits beyond profitable levels and cause an uproar and hence business
closure. It is therefore advisable to use other means of employee payment to avoid such cases.
Amazon having chosen to use this method puts it at risk of internal wrangles that can jeopardize
its reputation and hence business performance and revenue realization.
Therefore, my understanding of the case is that thee is shortage of liquid cash in the company
accounts and this projects a worrying situation. Otherwise, it could be due to its global reach and
therefore encouraging investors from different parts of the world to own the company. It could
be a live saver in some cases due to increased customer loyalty and popularity, this is a positive
result effected from by model.
In so doing, the company will be operating in blockchain manner which has been phenomena in
the modern world of online trading. These platforms have offered numerous individuals’ chances
to invest and earn wealth, however, it has proved to be challenging to determine accurately
future performance due to the associated risk in online trading platforms. These ae factors that
will be impossible to actor in accurately in any projection of an entity future business desires.
The three-statement model of Amazon inc therefore is faced with numerous challenges that ae
impossible to eliminate and therefore results will be false and misinforming.
Breakeven scenarios
A beak even point in business is where the total amount of cash inflow equals the total number of
cash outflows. This means that the entity is capable of maintaining itself and therefore any

additional revenue will be calculated as profit. In the case of Amazon, it is easier to achieve a
break even point mostly because most of the cash outflow is directly dictated by an initiating
cash inflow. It is therefore clear that Amazon three statement model has shown that the company
has surpassed the break-even point.
Probabilistic risk
This is a situation concerned with modelling the possibility and impacts of a negative events
financial results of an entity. In the case of Amazon, there is a high probability that these risks
will occur and affect investment. By the fact that it is an online platform, cases have emerged
where the platform has been hacked and information stolen. it would mean that there is high
chances that there will be cases of insecurity which will affect business and credibility of the
entity and therefore affect projected revenue realization.
Key variables other terms relating to financial models
In majority of the financial models available today, the concept is to find the total of the entity
and be able to project future performances. In these cases, the terms that keep on appear includes
mergers, debt schedules, income statements among others. The result of the above is to achieve a
situation whereby the entity net wort is known and hence means to remedy any shortcoming or
keep up with the current trend.

Merger Model (M&A)

This is an advanced way of evaluating the proforma dilution of an acquisition or merger. In the
case of Amazon, this can assist in cases where the entity wants to absorb another upcoming

competitor. It can also be used to market Amazons in order to get more strategic partners or
when intending to change ownership as more opportunities continue being available.

This model mainly focuses on the entities pre-tax income and then calculate the issued synergies,
interest on cash, shares issued, interest paid on new debt, and then compute the results of
aggregate earnings per share. This enables to the comparison of the shares to evaluate whether
the deal will turn to be accretive or dilutive. The model also enables the comparison of and future
usage of desirable features of the statements that may include cost saving techniques. This can be
achieved through leveraging on economics of scale.

The model also allows to factor in depreciation and amortization figures which are helpful in
mergers and acquisitions. In general, the model gives room to locate erroneous figures and learn
from both statements so that a decision can be made based on information. This can save a
company like amazon a great amount of cost. This is why the model is recommended in such
cases as it allows a deeper look at synergies and attach cost on them in both statements as they
get compared. The result is likely to be a streamlined process whereby the actual value of the two
entities is determined for negotiation. It is clear from the model that, any hidden or non-clear
entry will be analyzed along the process hence guarantee quality of purpose.


From the ancient times, it is known that business establishment is as a result of god strategy and
ability to respond to occurrences and changing environments. However, it normal for entities to
ignore important factors while intending to project their performance and predict future revenue
realization. This has brought significant level of failures in the business world and may have not

been able to dissect the actual cause. Therefore, in the case of Amazon, it is risky and almost
impossible to conduct an effective forecast that can be relied upon in making decisions.

Work Cited

Buljubasic, Elvisa, and Sanel Halilbegovic. "Detection of Financial Statement Fraud Using
Beneish Model.", 2017,
statement-model/. Accessed 25 June 2019.